Leadership tussle - constitutional doubts

Photo by Australian Civil-Military Centre, Flickr.

The events of the past few days have not only thrown the spotlight onto the Labor leadership, but also have implications for the survival of a Labor Government if Kevin Rudd deposes Julia Gillard as Labor leader. But a legal expert from The Australian National University has questioned whether this would be constitutional.

Professor Donald Rothwell of the ANU College of Law says the ALP holds 72 seats in the current parliament and governs with the support of the Greens and three Independents, giving it a majority of 76 on the floor of the House of Representatives.

This is compared to 72 for the Liberal/National Coalition, which, with the support of Independent Bob Katter, gives it a nominal 73 votes. The Speaker, Peter Slipper, is also an Independent.

“The constitutional question that would arise if Kevin Rudd was elected Labor leader is whether a Rudd Government could be presumed to have the same level of support,” Professor Rothwell said.

“That appears doubtful as Tony Windsor has indicated that if Gillard is deposed as Labor leader then ’all bets are off’. Rob Oakeshott has also expressed similar reservations.”

Professor Rothwell said if Kevin Rudd was to assume the Labor leadership he could seek to renegotiate the support of Oakeshott and Windsor. But if this were to occur during a Parliamentary sitting week the Coalition could exploit any uncertainty by introducing a motion of No Confidence against Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government.

“If that motion succeeded then Rudd would have little choice but to advise the Governor-General that the Parliament should be dissolved and an early election be held,” Professor Rothwell said.

“The Governor-General may accept that advice, or choose to explore with Tony Abbott whether he could command the confidence of the House. If Abbott was able to demonstrate to the Governor-General that he did have the confidence of the House then an Abbott Government could be commissioned.

“However, this would require some of the existing supporters of the Gillard Labor Government to switch allegiance to an Abbott Coalition Government.”